Evidence before opinion.

Abstract

Oklahoma solved an earthquake crisis by shrinking its disposal capacity. Statewide Class II injection has fallen about 40% from its 2015 peak, and effectively the entire cut came out of the deep Ordovician zone — the Arbuckle among them — while shallower Pennsylvanian injection stayed roughly flat. The state still puts about twice as much fluid back into the ground as it produces for sale. This paper argues that with gas demand pulling new drilling into the Anadarko Basin, the binding limit on Oklahoma's next production cycle is not the rock but how many barrels of water an acre is legally and physically allowed to dispose of, and who controls that permission.

Methodology

Statewide and zone-level Class II injection volumes are indexed to the 2015 peak using Oklahoma Geological Survey monthly disposal data by geologic zone of completion, then read against the Corporation Commission's directive record — 33 directives, including the November 2016 Cushing plan with its tiered 6-, 10-, and 15-mile response radii. Cost exposure is priced by moving a barrel of water from pipeline to trucking at a documented 20:1 water-to-oil ratio, which converts disposal logistics into a per-barrel-of-oil figure.